2025/12/05

Strategic Risk-Adjusted SOP for TXO Terrain Trading

此版本解決了流動性斷層問題 (Liquidity Gap)、強化了進場勝率 (Win Rate),並優化了 0DTE 的操作效率 (Efficiency)。


Strategic Risk-Adjusted SOP for TXO Terrain Trading

🛡️ Phase 1: Passive Surveillance (Pre-2DTE)

  • Action: Continuous data collection of Terrain (NetAcc) & NetFlow.

  • Constraint: NO ACTION PERMITTED.

  • Rationale: Avoids "Over-trading." Wait for the Theta Decay Acceleration Point (2 days prior to expiration) to maximize capital efficiency.


🏗️ Phase 2: Structural Deployment (2DTE - Entry)

  • Timing: 2 Days to Expiration (After 13:00 or Night Session).

  • Strategy: Imbalanced Iron Condor (Probe).

  • Capital Allocation: Capped at 10% of Total Capital.

  • Entry Logic: The "Sign Confluence" Filter (胜率優化)

    • CRITICAL RULE: Do not fight the active flow. Structure (NetAcc) and Momentum (NetFlow) must agree.

    • Sell Call Criteria:

      1. Terrain = Pressure (NetAcc < 0).

      2. AND NetFlow is Negative or Neutral (NetFlow ≤ 0).

      • Rejection: If NetFlow is strongly positive (> +500), ABORT entry even if Terrain shows pressure.

    • Sell Put Criteria:

      1. Terrain = Support (NetAcc > 0).

      2. AND NetFlow is Positive or Neutral (NetFlow ≥ 0).

  • Risk Control: Mandatory purchase of OTM Wings (Protective Legs) immediately.


🔧 Phase 3: Dynamic Calibration (1DTE - Adjustment)

  • Timing: 09:00 (15 mins after Open).

  • Mode: "Supervisor Mode".

  • Capital Allocation: Scale up to 50% if the structure is stable.

  • Adjustment Logic: Align Portfolio Delta with Real-time Terrain Payoff Delta.

  • The Adjustment Tool: Synthetic Futures (可行性優化)

    • Problem Solved: Solves the lack of Weekly Futures and the liquidity/basis risk of ITM options.

    • Instrument: ATM (At-The-Money) Options of the same weekly expiration.

    • Execution:

      • To Add +1 Delta (Long): Buy ATM Call + Sell ATM Put.

      • To Add -1 Delta (Short): Sell ATM Call + Buy ATM Put.

    • Advantage: Zero basis risk, maximum liquidity, linear delta behavior.

  • Gap Protection: Buy cheap, Deep OTM options to cap overnight gap risk before market close.

  • Goal: Achieve "Absolute Safety Mode" by close (positions in the "Ignore Zone").


⚔️ Phase 4: Termination & Sniper Mode (0DTE - Execution)

  • Timing: Settlement Day.

  • Regime Shift: From Theta Harvesting to Gamma Scalping.

Step A: Liquidation (08:45 - 09:00)

  • Action: Close all positions with residual directional risk.

  • Retention: Keep only "Ignore" positions (Deep OTM Shorts with >99% probability of expiring worthless).

Step B: Sniper Scalping (09:00 - 13:30)

  • Capital Allocation: Deploy remaining 50% (High Turnover).

  • Time-Boxing: The "Golden Hours" (效率優化)

    • Trade ONLY during high-volatility windows to avoid "Chop Zones":

    1. Opening Drive: 08:45 – 09:15 (Trend establishment).

    2. China Correlation: 09:30 – 10:00 (Secondary reaction).

    3. Settlement Showdown: 13:00 – 13:30 (Mean reversion / Gamma squeeze).

    • Rest Zone: 11:00 – 12:30 (Do not trade unless a Tier-1 Signal appears).

  • Decision Engine:

    1. Primary Signal: Real-time Active NetFlow Payoff Chart (Trading against Market Maker's pain).

    2. Timing: 1-min Technical Indicators (pandasA).

    3. Context: Terrain Structure accumulation.

  • Execution: Hit & Run. Fast exits. No holding losers.


⚠️ Risk Protocols (Non-Negotiable)

  1. Gamma Trap: In 0DTE scalping, if a position moves against you by 15 points, CUT IMMEDIATELY. Do not average down on Gamma risk.

  2. System Failure: If real-time data feeds (NetFlow/Payoff) lag or disconnect, close all speculative positions immediately. Do not trade blind.

  3. Capital Load: Never exceed the 50% capital allocation for 0DTE scalping. The remaining 50% acts as a margin buffer for the settlement of Short positions.

 

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