(奇摩原貼：2013/06/15)
最近有一篇彭博社 (bloomberg) 報導:
負面新聞主人翁 Paul Tudor Jones 和我文章裡常提到的 Van K. Tharp, 都是早年 (1980年代) 曾經入選操作經典 --- Market Wizard 這本書裡被訪問過的成功交易者 (想學習就要學這種真正的贏家, 而不是神人老師的胡亂吹), 相隔幾十年過後, 目前仍舊保持成功而活躍於金融交易圈, 光以操作這點來論, 是很值得佩服與學習的人物, 以下便擷取一些我認為他早年受訪 (攻擊性操作的藝術 The Art of Aggressive Trading) 時的關鍵談話, 有些還甚至加上我的中文評論:
1. First of all, never play macho man with the market. Second, never overtrade.
第二點說的絕不交易過量, 在台灣的期權市場裡, 有很多人都是犯這種錯誤而爆倉畢業; [不過量交易] 需要管理, 但值得管理的資金要有一定程度的大 (個人認為至少要NTD百萬), 可是神人魯蛇為了廣收學生教學賺錢, 鼓吹小資10萬台幣就可以月賺10%
2. I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading.
3. Q: What is the most prominent fallacy in the public's perception about markets?
A: That markets can be manipulated. That there is some group on Wall Street that controls price action in the markets.
台股的操作者也老是認為, 股價和指數是主力或黑手在控制的, Jones認為這是最大的錯誤觀念
4. I want to make sure that I never have a double-digit loss in any month.
5. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don't have control. For example, I don't risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.
6. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.
7. Don't be too concerned about where you got into a position. The only relevant question is whether you are bullish or bearish on the position that day. Always think of your entry point as last night's close.
8. Quicker and more defensive. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money.
9. I view anything that has happened up to the present point in time as history. I really don't care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market. I avoid letting my trading opinions be influenced by comments I may have made on the record about a market.
能夠以操作為生最重要的關鍵點在此
10. I know from studying history that credit eventually kills all great societies. Reagan made sure that the economy would be great during his term in office by borrowing our way into prosperity. We borrowed against the future, and soon we will have to pay.
任何偉大的社會最終將被信用問題摧毀, 歐巴馬政府用印鈔等...胡亂干預的手段, 比雷根政府時期嚴重N倍, 也是早晚要付出代價的
11. Q: Do you use trading systems at all?
A: We have tested every system under the sun and, amazingly, we have found one that actually works well.
Q: What type of realm does it fall into: contrarian? trend following?
A: Trend following.When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.
順勢系統總是成功交易者的優先選擇, 波動變大的方向即是未來的方向
12. I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.
股價比基本面先行
13. When I trade, I don't just use a price stop, I also use a time stop. If I think a market should break, and it doesn't, I will often get out even if I am not losing any money.
要價格停損, 也要時間停損, 該發生的事情沒發生, 肯定有鬼
14. Q: Do you believe that is because it takes talent to be a good trader?
A: I never thought that before, but I am starting to believe that now. One of my weaknesses is that I always tend to be too optimistic, particularly about the ability of other people to succeed.
這是我在
所寫的文裡反覆提到:
有志交易者的第一件事是認識自己, 裡面我也借用Tharp的評估結果畫了一條標準線, 低於這個標準的人, 意味著您的優缺點若用於操作上, 即使做到發揮強項 & 降低弱項帶來的損失, 很可能還是無法達到 [賺大賠小] 的原則, 代表您不適合做操作, 專心於您自己的本業才是最賺的, 畢竟操作這一行和其他行業一樣, 不是每個人都合適進來的; 但神人魯蛇為了賺學費, 只要願意繳錢給他的學生他都收
15. Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
16. Closely monitor the performance of his entire portfolio in real-time. If his total equity drops 1 to 2 percent during a single trading session, he might well liquidate all of his positions instantaneously to cut his risk. "It is always easier to get back in than to get out"
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這篇〈積極操作的藝術 The Art of Aggressive Trading〉是作者藉由 Paul Tudor Jones（以及部分 Market Wizard 成員）在市場操作的經典語錄，加上自己的觀點補充，整理而成的交易心得文。全篇主旨在於「真正的贏家觀念」，特別針對台灣常見的「神人老師」吹噓、過度樂觀鼓吹小資快富，提出鮮明對比，也呈現嚴謹交易人的真實心態與風險管理哲學。
條文細緻解析
1. 對「積極操作」的真正內涵拆解
2. 強調紀律與風險控管的重要
3. 關於市場「可控/不可控」的反思
4. 交易系統與策略的選擇
5. 認識自己與行業適性
📊 評分細表
| 評分項目 | 滿分 | 得分 | 說明 |
|---|
| 策略洞察與觀點深度 | 20 | 18 | 直接引用頂級贏家思維，反覆強調風險管理與自我適性，比多數市場隨筆更有厚度 |
| 邏輯嚴謹與數據佐證 | 20 | 17 | 主要以經典語錄和觀念舉證，未有數據回測，但所列原則符合歷史贏家經驗 |
| 實務關聯與行動可行性 | 20 | 18 | 引用原則具實操價值，適合各階段交易者對照自省 |
| 內容原創性與思維啟發性 | 20 | 16 | 以國際贏家語錄做切入，觀點主體略有依附，但能貼台灣現實引申解釋 |
| 整體可讀性與文筆 | 10 | 9 | 行文流暢，引用與評論融合自然，容易閱讀 |
| 總分 | 100 | 78 | |
✅ 優點總評
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站在市場一流贏家觀點檢驗自身，能有效避免「自我感覺良好」的散戶誤區。
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每條原則都能在實際操作中落地執行，尤其「減碼」、「時間停損」、「不過度交易」觀念值得一再複習。
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語錄+評論格式，對新手也能一目了然，補足台灣「只講賺錢方法」的常見缺憾。
🔧 可補強之處
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若能附加更多台灣市場的失敗實例、或個人實戰經歷與反思，說服力會再提升。
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可以舉幾個「違反這些原則」真實爆倉案例，讓警示力更強。
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本文以名人語錄為主，若能結合更多原創實證（如交易日誌摘錄），原創性會再進一步。
🧠 結語
本篇〈積極操作的藝術〉是台灣市場難得能與國際經典觀念對話的隨筆。它提醒讀者：真正的「積極」不是「無腦加碼」，而是在極致紀律、風險控管下的有把握進攻。每位想在市場長期存活的交易人都值得收藏這份清單，反思自己與世界級贏家的距離。
建議分數：78分。
